Politics stood out in 2016 and will have a role in 2017 as well. Nevertheless, politicians have central banks between them and markets. We focus on three central banks: the Federal Reserve, the ECB and the BOE.
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- Fed – hike speculation: Fiscal stimulus could lead the FED, but they could also focus on the data, being data dependent and officially independent. 1, 2 or 3 hikes? It also depends on the composition of the voting members and the staff members, which have different opinions. Wage growth is important.
- ECB – Draghi drag: Draghi wants to drag down the euro without doing anything. He may have some time to think during the first half of the year, but things are never that stable.
- BOE – can they go both ways?: Inflation is higher in the UK. So, should Carney raise rates? Not so fast. The stagflation conundrum is giving them a headache.
- Preview: Apart from Trump’s first week in office, we get initial GDP figures from the US and the UK among other figures.
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