MM #123 – Trump-time – fiscal, monetary and market implications

We focus on Trump’s Triumph: the shock result has significant implications for both fiscal and monetary policy and it already had a huge impact on markets. Uncertainty is high and only volatility is certain.

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  1. Market movements on Trump: We had everything: buy the rumor / sell the fact, a surprising winner in currencies and only one market that was a clear loser: the bond market.
  2. Fiscal stimulus?: Trump promised to cut tax and spend, spend and spend. In theory, the sweep for his party is promising, but this is the pro small government party, the Republican one. So, only one part of the equation could come to fruition. We discuss the implication.
  3. Monetary policy: In theory, more spending means more inflation and more hikes, but things can get complicated. In addition, who is going to be the Fed Chair after Yellen? This is a big question as well.
  4. Stocks gaining from Trump: There are always winners and losers. Trump’s anti-trade stance is an open question for markets.
  5. Preview: After indicators moved aside from the elections, we have a very busy week. Watch out US retail sales, key UK data and lots more.

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