MM #114 – About the Fed’s forecasting failures

Are central bankers losing the plot? We discuss the problematic Fed’s forecasting, the unusual market impact from a rate cut and also update on the US economy and the road ahead.

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  1. Update on the economy: It is becoming harder to find a consistent theme with the NFP and retail sales reports going their separate ways. We also update on the road ahead.
  2. Fed forecasting: Following a long article by Bernanke, we discuss some of the Fed’s failures. Should they only be looking at the past and not gaze towards the future? Forecasting is hard and being ahead of the curve seems like a guessing game.
  3. Is forward guidance TMI?: Also in a land far far away, New Zealand, the central bank struggles to trigger the desired market reaction. Is it the kiwi in the coal mine? Should central banks remain silent?
  4. Preview: The Fed’s meeting minutes, key Brexit data and Japanese GDP dominate the scene.

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